达利欧 我们已身处于一场全球大战中 短期内不会完毕

媒体4月8日｜据MarketWatch，市场目前似乎堕入一场猛烈坚定的旋风，当中东缓和情势升温、油价下跌时，美股便出现兜售，而一旦出现降温迹象，又迅速反弹。全球最大避险基金桥水兴办人达利欧(Ray Dalio)以为，这种反响过于短视，少数投资人疏忽了更终年的关键力气。

他进一步指出，就目前而言，最关键的是，美国、以色列与伊朗之间的抗争，其实只是我们已身处其中的一场全球大战的一部分，而这场全球大战短期内不会完毕。美以伊抵触并非单一事情，而是与其他全球抵触同时出现，包括俄乌抵触、以及以色列与邻国之间的抵触。他以为，这与过去的全球大战相似，各国逐渐选边站，并代表盟友介入抵触。

经过研讨历史上的抗争与抵触，达利欧指出，当帝国过度扩张时，往往会进入一个“大周期”(Big Cycle)。据推测，目前正处于该周期的第九阶段，其特征是“多个战场的抵触愈来愈同时出现”。接着是经济骚动加剧，直到最终出现胜利者并树立新的全球次第。

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制造业回流美国，没有想象中那么容易

美媒依据《美国制造业回流指数》笃定：美国将在2025年成功超84%的美国企业部分或许全部回流其制造业务。 我团体以为，大选将至，美国现任总统又拿前任总统的业绩来画饼了。

美前总统为制造业回流做了啥？

美前总统上前后，努力于重振美国制造业，他提出了一系列的政策和方案。 围绕着推进制造业回流，在贸易、税收、监管等方面启动调整，希望重新将具有竞争力的产业引回美国。

他采取各种手腕维护外乡消费者，比如惩罚中国出口货物加征关税，谈判美墨加北美自在贸易协议，以及分开跨太平洋同伴相关等等。 此类执行助力美国的制造业变得更具吸引力，并使外乡公司不再仅仅只思索本钱优势去外包消费。

他枪枪打中我们中国的痛点，比如：制止华为购置芯片、制止华为经常使用安卓系统、造成华为在市场占有率持久位列全球第一后，急剧降低。 画饼让台积电等芯片代工企业赴美建厂，让全球一切芯片代工企业都捏在美国手里。 制止先进光刻机对华出口，造成中国芯片设计开展，止步3纳米。 惩罚中国高校，让中国高端制造业人才无法出国留学和正常回流。

他提出增加企业税负、疏解运营及消费环节中的各种阻碍，同时使企业更容易取得财政资金支持。 这不只让美国企业将制造业回流国际，甚至还吸引了一部分中国企业赴美建厂。 他提出政府推销美国优先，这又促使一部分产品的消费在美国构成完整供应链。

所谓制造业回流有局限性

美国的所谓制造业回流其实自身就是一张大饼，有很大的行业局限性。 在美国制造业中，一些高技术含量或高附加值的产业相对容易回流，如航空、汽车、芯片、计算机等行业。 这些行业具有技术密集性、创新才干强以及对资本、人才、技术等方面的需求大等特点。

而在一些休息密集型的产业，例如轻工业、纺织业等，则面临着更大的困难。 这是由于休息密集型行业的消费本钱过于依赖于廉价休息力，假设要回流，本钱将清楚上升，难以维持外地竞争力。 此外还要求思索到供应链、设备树立等疑问，以及长途跋涉或许引入风险和延迟等疑问。

选民之所以支持制造业回流，是希望能够取得任务岗位，但是美国搞的所谓制造业回流，发生的岗位其实和大少数学历水平普通的美国人没有任何相关。

现任总统拿前总统的业绩来画饼

美国现任总统在制造业回流上简直没做任何事，他采取的执行简直没有任何的创见，就是躺在前任总统的业绩上。 他的“1.9万亿美元的经济抚慰方案”，其实就是由于出现通货紧缩，不得不向市场投放资金。 由于通货紧缩，美国的务工岗位不只没有参与，反而由于企业运营困难而有所增加。

他提议的“提高公司税率和增强打击冒充伪劣货物等措施“号称是维护外乡制造业，其实就是一个口号，美国正常法制运转下，这些任务原本就要启动。 但是，加税的做法，让很多赴美树立工厂的企业大呼受骗。

所以，这个时刻美媒说制造业回流取得成效，讴歌美现任总统的业绩，其实是前总统的。 为了选票，拿前任的业绩来画饼和前任总统，继续竞争马过去临的选举，也是有点诙谐。

英文版：Over 80% of US manufacturing will return in three years? The achievement of the former president is now being boasted about by the current president.

According to the US Manufacturing Reshoring Index, U.S. media is convinced that over 84% of American companies will partially or fully reshore their manufacturing operations by 2025. Personally, I think that with the presidential election approaching, the current U.S. president is boasting about the achievements of the former president again.

What did the former U.S. president do for the reshoring of manufacturing?

After taking office, the former U.S. president was committed to revitalizing American manufacturing and proposed a series of policies and plans. He made adjustments in trade, taxation, regulation and other areas aimed at promoting reshoring of manufacturing, hoping to bring competitive industries back to the United States.

He took various measures to protect domestic producers, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, negotiating the USMCA free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. These actions helped to make American manufacturing more attractive and led domestic companies to no longer only consider cost advantages when outsourcing production.

He hit the pain points of China, such as prohibiting Huawei from purchasing chips and using the Android system, which caused Huaweis market share to decline rapidly after briefly ranking first in the world. He invited TSMC and other chip foundries to build factories in the United States and brought all chip foundries in the world under Americas control. He prevented advanced lithography machines from being exported to China, causing Chinas chip design to stagnate at 3 nm. He punished Chinese universities, making it difficult for top-notch talent in Chinas high-end manufacturing industry to study abroad and return home normally.

He proposed reducing corporate tax burdens, eliminating various obstacles in the operation and production process, and making it easier for businesses to obtain financial support. This not only allowed American companies to reshore manufacturing domestically, but also attracted some Chinese companies to build factories in the United States. He proposed government procurement with Buy American priority, which promoted the formation of a complete supply chain for some products in the United States.

The so-called reshoring of manufacturing has limitations.

The so-called reshoring of manufacturing in the United States is actually a big pie with significant industry limitations. In the US manufacturing sector, some industries with high technology content or high added value are comparatively easy to reshore, such as aviation, automotive, semiconductor, computer and other industries. These industries have characteristics such as technology intensity, strong innovation ability, and large demand for capital, talent, technology, etc.

However, in some labor-intensive industries, such as light industry, textiles, they face greater difficulties. This is because the production cost of labor-intensive industries is too dependent on cheap labor. If they want to reshore, the cost will significantly increase, which will be difficult to maintain local competitiveness. In addition, supply chain, facility construction and other issues need to be considered, as well as risks and delays that may be introduced by long-distance transportation.

The reason why voters support reshoring of manufacturing is to obtain job opportunities, but the jobs created through the so-called reshoring of manufacturing in the United States actually have nothing to do with most average-educated Americans.

The current president is using the achievements of the former president to boast.

The current President of the United States has done almost nothing to bring back manufacturing, and his actions have been largely uncreative, relying on the achievements of the former president. His $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan was simply a response to deflationary pressures that required market intervention. However, due to deflation, employment in the United States not only did not increase but actually decreased due to ongoing difficulties in business operations.

His proposal to raise corporate tax rates and strengthen measures to combat counterfeit goods is purportedly designed to protect domestic manufacturing, but is actually just a slogan. These are works that should have been carried out under normal legal procedures in the United States. However, the practice of raising taxes has left many enterprises that intended to build factories in America feeling deceived.

Therefore, when the American media praises the effectiveness of bringing back manufacturing, they are essentially singing the praises of the achievements of the former president, not the current one. Claiming credit for the achievements of the previous administration in order to win votes and compete in the upcoming election is somewhat ridiculous.